Report: Reston To Triple in Size by 2050, Require Three Macaroni Grills To Feed Hungry Populace, As Task Force Recommends Higher Density

Reston could triple in size by 2050, according to a George Mason University growth forecast. The "good" news? Most of us will be dead by the time the biggest push happens.

Reston is predicted to triple in residential size by 2050, while employment is expected to almost double, according to a growth forecast created by George Mason University's Center for Regional Analysis.

The forecast predicted that other areas in the county, such as Tysons Corner and south county, likely will see faster job growth between 2010 and 2020. Reston is predicted to see the bulk of its growth later, between 2030 and 2050.

This is where the Reston Master Plan Task Force with an Unpronounceable Acronym (~) comes in. And its job is tricky, because of what we'll call the earth-toned chicken-and-egg syndrome (tm): Does the task force accommodate growth at this scale as best it can because it's inevitable, or does it have the power to mitigate that growth through its actions? Based on its recent draft recommendations, it appears the former approach is the one that's currently favored:

Task force members are forming a recommendation to the county Board of Supervisors on what zoning changes to the Reston Master Plan need to be made to incorporate predicted new levels of density.

"It's become apparent to me that we're going to have to do away with the [Planning Residential Community zoning] that limits our growth to 13 persons per acre," said Gerald Volloy, representing the Alliance of Reston Clusters and Homeowners, an organization commonly known as ARCH.

Higher density has been favored by Reston founder Robert E. Simon, who also sits on the task force. Several task force members said they were skeptical of the reliability of the growth forecasts because of the distance of projection.

Simon agreed: "These forecasts were based on the location of these [Metro] stations. ... And I think that's a bit dangerous." He said the task force should look to village centers as destinations, not Metro stops, adding "community centers are divorced from Metro stations."

The Task Force's subcommittee draft reports for the areas around the Wiehle Avenue and Reston Town Center metro stations both call for dramatic increases in density, as measured by a formula called "FAR" (floor-to-area radio). Both proposals, at least as they are currently written, are suggesting FARs of up to 5.0 in the areas closest to the Metro stations, tapering down to less dense ratios as you move towards existing residential areas. (By contrast, our beloved Fake Downtown has a FAR of about 2.0, and Ballston has one of about 4.0.) Here's what that looks like:

Just as importantly, both proposals are calling for a strictly enforced mix of commercial and residential development and open space -- most notably a park extending through much of the current Spectrum Center near RTC. The RTC proposal also makes a case for development above the Toll Road, urging planners to preserve the air rights for when doing so becomes economically feasible.

One encouraging comment in the RTC draft proposal: "Let good projects, not FAR limits, drive decisions." We think that's something everyone can agree with.